This entirely a forum to discuss our investment thoughts and thesis. Usually it should stay relatively impersonal. However if I’m ever showing that my actions don’t line up with my thought patterns - I encourage or even plead that each person here points out the disconnect in order to try and help me out. Being right but not acting on it is one of the most frustrating things - especially when it costs you money - either in realisesd/unrealised losses or missed gains - when you didn’t pull the trigger on what you were thinking. So my suggestion is in no way ridicule, but honest investment thoughts. LVT are not going to materially reduce staff costs below $7-8m in the near future. If you cannot come to terms with that, then rather than be frustrated with your investment - find something you prefer. And if you’re sitting on PnL loss for LVT - even more reason to sell and crystallise your tax loss. This is one of the best tools for investors in Australia... It basically gives you a free hit on your winners in the future...
Now - given this is a forum to discuss companies and their reports as you say - then we have an onus on ourselves not to let down those in the forum by asserting blatantly incorrect information points. Taken at face value, those without the necessary awareness would be lead astray. Some learned friends have already pointed out that you are entirely and factually incorrect re your RSI statements. You are partially correct when you say BUY and SELL ratings are dependent on market price action - but then fundamentally incorrect on every other sentence in that post. Analyst will build models that generate a 12 month price target. If that price target is X% higher than last, then it will generate an OUTPERFORM rating (note brokers are moving away from Buy/Sell to things like Overweight/Underweight). Price target within +/- threshold will lead to a HOLD/Neutral rating. And below X% leads to an UNDERPERFORM. If nothing changes in the model, but price action drives the actual share price above broker price target, then broker will downgrade to NEUTRAL (or U/P depending on how far the price ran). So that is entirely the opposite of your suggestion that price action is the lead input factor for sell side analyst ratings. The ever increasing amount of regulation around research ensures it’s not worth careers to try and blatantly disregard the established guidelines. Now, jumping back to reality, a sharply increasing share price is probably indicative of something changing/being realised within/about the company - which means it’s likely an input factor in the analysts model that also will change.
My confidence in LVT lies not in the countless hours of research I have done on the company. It lies not in the success of the founders who have consistently delivered on their targets to date. It lies in the fact that I know a lot of extremely smart people in both the buy and sell side of the financial market community that are big believers in the future of the company. They have done exponentially more digging and due diligence than me. They have exponentially larger financial investments than me. And my conviction is based on their consistent current and historical success in finding and holding smart investments. And their conviction has lead to them not just invest their funds’ monies, but also their own personal funds in PA positions.
Good luck to all holders and non-holders. Onwards and upwards.
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