SEA (ASX) Strong Buy

Originally posted by cmonaussie: ↑

"IMO the only thing that will make SEA share price go up (sustainably) is to demonstrate their ability to repay debt from cash flow and still maintain current production rates. If they can't do this they are dead in the water."

Isn't that a change of tact by you. That's the maintenance capital, growth capital discussion we had. Maintaining flat production is a reduction in Capex and even more FCF to put towards repaying debt. What we want is the "right" amount of (profitable) growth while still generating FCF to distribute to shareholders in the most economic fashion (which I think it debt repayment).

We may be a little ahead of the curve ... it is structural and it is in favor of SEA ... higher cost Bbls are being replaced by lower costs Bbls ... the whole point of the PXD acquisition and that "transformation" (almost every E&P uses that word to describe their A&D activity) is what (some of us) are seeing now.

How was the 1st Qtr a shock to draw on debt? That actually said they would be doing that.

But you're right, its a horses for courses market. Dead horses resemble Sanchez & Halcon. Does SEA look like that? Actual objective quantitative metrics please not subject qualitative statements.

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"Isn't that a change of tact by you."

I'm not sure it is @cmonaussie because at this point in their development cycle no one knows what their maintenance capital might be, when we know then we know and until then we are speculating.

"distribute to shareholders in the most economic fashion (which I think it debt repayment)."

There's a difference between what's best and what's the most economical thing to do with FCF. Given where the share price is relative to any valuation out there do you really think the most economic thing to do (on an eps basis) is to repay the debt? Wouldn't it be a share buyback? Most certainly the best thing to do is to repay debt, but that's the most economic. Actual objective quantitative metrics please not subject qualitative statements.

"How was the 1st Qtr a shock to draw on debt? That actually said they would be doing that."

You might be right but can you explain any other reason what the share price has fallen out of bed since that quarterly was released on 17 May? I certainly can't. Investors who are not already shareholders look at stuff like that and seek clarification and then confirmation, which in SEA's case has not yet been forthcoming.