whats happening this week, page-9

Aussinorm

They did not pick $8.12 as the bottom, but getting close?..

I have been burnt on this one, but am playing it long for the retracement bounce, which when it comes will be reasonably swift as happens with this stock.

They make no claims of crystal clarities, but makes sense..

This is the extract as of Friday..
LAYMANS: The July 2 review (see archives below) discussed the omen of Type-A Bearish Divergence. That's clearly taken hold now as FMG, an apparent 'no-brainer', has tanked 38% in short order. There is a lot of pain here but it does also prove the point that human emotion can and will weigh heavily regardless of the consensus opinion. Two things stand out to me now. Firstly, the weekly divergence is almost unwound - not quite, but getting there. Secondly, and more importantly, the down draft off the highs has shifted momentum in a major way and this will not be reversed any time soon. I see scope for a minor bounce, but don't be fooled.
TECHNICAL: We had been expecting weakness, maybe not as bad as this, but more importantly the wave structure was to be a 3-wave. Well, we now have a 5-wave as a starter. This portends a larger 3-wave whereby this has just been the start. In EW speak, a wave-A is an impulse so it should unfold in 5-waves. Therefore this decline is a wave-A of a much larger corrective pattern. The bearish expectation remains intact. The stock has dropped some 38% in quick order so a bounce into wave-B probably won't be far away, so much so that one would not be selling down here. The wave-B could see a move back toward $11 before weakness sets in again. This outlook is basis a standard zigzag pattern and not a flat or triangle. The only objective take at this stage is that the correction has just started and new highs are a long way off.