+++ competition +++, page-25

re: hate to rub it in lumettes but... OK stolly, good sport. Never fall in love with a spec.

I must say I was pretty much caught by surprise when LUM continued to move above 44c, as I thought it was overpriced and all over at that level. Nevertheless I jumped on a few times for daytrades. By the time it got to 88c it was running purely on sentiment and had become very risky. As I suggested, it did have one last little spurt to 93c left in it.

These "extended fifths" as we call them in Elliott invariably come to grief and usually pull back near the beginning of the move, to the area 37 to 42c in this case. 37.5c also was a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback from the all time low of 6c.

The 55c interim target was simply a 50% pullback from the beginning of the move in June.

In fact the pulback has overshot to fill the gap on 7/7/03 at the support level 29c. At least, this is where the bottom feeders chose to jump onto it - might have done the same myself if I had been watching.

I expect one more dive before it bottoms out, but
the area 21-29c will now form a very substantial support level that I doubt will ever be broken.