note on rp prices q3 2008 fob morocco 450 500, page-45

jmca,

Firstly - the phosphate supply vs demand has become incredibly tight in recent months, and it's understandable that other supply would come onstream to take advantage of the price environement.

Ma'aden's supply has sovereign risk. However let's assume it comes onstream without any major hiccups.

They would be very stupid to flood the market and bring down their own profits, at a time when supply is tight. They have several billion dollars of loans to pay off, and they aren't going to manage it with a thin margin.

Meanwhile Minemakers have the advantage of:

- low capex
- low sovereign risk
- identified resource
- short time to evelopment
- proximity to s e asia

Moreover they can work off their initial cashflow to develop infrastructure if required, to reduce their opex. This _should_ allow them in a similar opex ballpark to ma'aden's project around the same time as when that comes online. In my opinion, and that's certainly what I'd be aiming at if I were AD.