Its highly likely and the opinions of most within the industry China will not be back in the market in 2008 ... the earthquakes in Sichuan have ensured this ... Given China's natural gas insecurity it is silly for them to be making DAP and MAP with gas they have to import only to export it anyway. They're number one goal will be to contain fertilizer prices domestically as high prices will ration use and that is not something they need to see with a global food crisis unfolding.
Personally it wouldn't surprise me to NEVER see China in export markets for DAP, MAP and urea again. Rock phosphate reserves take on a whole new value once you ascribe them value and food is no longer cheap.
note on rp prices q3 2008 fob morocco 450 500, page-50
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