The metric GXY have used is Cash and Liquid assets no Debt
That was approx. 203M USD end of June, (276 + 27.5 no debt)
End of QTR assuming a40 is still undergoing assessment/ restructure if you give it a 2cent value on Equity following a restructure, and assume LPD stays same at .021 Cents average there is a substantial drop in liquid assets well above any cashflow from operations that is potentially forecast even on 75K in sales
Cash and Liquid assets and no debt is going to be lower imo.
The 577/T you are using is the lower end of the range they used in their model to come up with the impairments.
During the conference call when asked about current pricing it was said
hearing mid to low 5's which is well below the average 584 /t they received in first half
More importantly, when asked for clarification on "mid to low 5's" prices
GXY confirmed that that was prices were for 6% FOB
it was later stated that they had 59000 T at 5.85 in a stockpile which could mean that the FOB price for 5.85% would be lower than the mid to low 5's they started quoting.
Selling and Royalties costs were also mentioned guided up going forward , environmental charges mentioned.
75 is lower than the 79 average of last half and suggest its too optimistic given the guidance and information of the conference call.
Cash profit , Im not sure of this new term they are inventing.
assume they are talking about cashflow from operations. Note they said Mt C impairments reflect that it wont make a taxable profits in the current market.
lets look at the 75K sales (even though they were absolutely no committal to the last 15K shipment in late September)
Last average cash costs to produce 387 (confirmed running at same rate as 1st half and stable)
Last marketing and royalties 79 (no increase despite conference call and note royalties payments would actually be for previous QTR shipments and would affect cashflow calcs in reality- but as a rough guide.)
Total costs 466/t
agree 50K is good production starting forecast given conference call
I would use 535/t - (highest prices noted 550/t for 6% less 15 for 5.85% which is majority of 75K in sales starting with 59K of 5.85% out first)
40.125M (75000 X 535) rough inflows assuming all bought and paid same qtr
34.95M costs (75000 X 466) rough cash costs assuming all paid in same QTR
5.175M cash margin (69)
then less other costs of Mt C - Payments to suppliers, contractors and employees
for net cashflow from operations ----- doesn't seem to leave much if anything in my view.
debt increased 31 M approx. with purchase of a40 secured debt
There would have been a lot of legal fees involved with that and other consultants fees prior to appointing a receiver in their discussions with alita.
liquid assets, they were valued at roughly 27.5M, that would substantially reduce if they mark lpd to market at current price and a40 down given its in VA and receivership- say down by 20M
The also have to fund payment of the receiver and manager until such time as its recovered in any restructure / sale.
I don't think you will see an improvement in the metric they have pushed Cash and Liquid assets nit debt.
Reality is they can actually play with the cash figure anyway with creditors payments.
Its my very strong view that regulators need to get rid of all the BS and vague nature presented by most of these companies in their quarterly statements and conference calls by simply doing what SGX requires,,,,end of each QTR a set of unaudited financial statements must be released.
Imagine if a PL and BS was released after the first QTR, you would see the sales prices, cashflow and other info and I suspect many would have sold out and mitigated their loss or avoided averaging down and increasing exposure.
I know I would have sold out earlier instead of holding until they released a statement saying they were pumping in more unsecured equity on top of a previously undisclosed mega losing trade in a40 and leaving a secured creditor in there.
Anyway just rough calculations
GXY Price at posting:
$1.12 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
