Assuming 1kg LCE/kwh lithium requirement and a 50kwh average battery size, then 1 million EV is about 50kt LCE = 400kt SC6. So this year, assuming for a minute, 50% growth,
2019 3000k EVs 50% YOY growth = 50kt LCE extra need = 400kt SC6 = current output of AJM + PLS roughly
2020 4500k 50% = 75kt LCE = 600kt SC6 = ANOTHER AJM+PLS mine at nameplate + some needed
2021 6750k 50% = 112.5kt LCE = 900kt SC6 = ANOTHER Greenbushes mine needed at current sale output
2022 10.1m EVs 50% = 170kt LCE = 1350kt SC6 = ANOTHER Greenbushes with CGP1 and full output of CGP2 online.
2023 Well at this point, the yearly increases are a fully future expanded CGP1 to CGP4 Greenbushes per year.
This is just for passenger vehicles. No static storage, heavy EVs other anything else. 50% growth adds up quickly. So the question is, can 50% growth be maintained? Well, the non-Tesla EV lineups from VW and the like are only now starting to materialize. The tens of billions sunk into to EV development are only now starting to show up in production models. All while EV costs/battery costs keep coming down each year. So I suspect it will keep strong. I however doubt the supply situation will keep up and will likely bottleneck that growth rate in the future. As everyone knows, expansion are on average late and underperform. The last 1.5 years and on going have sucked capital out of supply expansion. So many explorers haven't progressed anywhere towards building. Even the big guns have scaled back expansions. Oversupply projections assume miners expansion plans and timelines as gospel while the reality is that most are late and underperform. Furthermore, the demand side keeps adjusting their projections upwards.
Anyhow, all IMO.
PLS Price at posting:
34.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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