Dave Wall Podcast on Audioboom, page-16

Good to hear some numbers put on the success case, (20m 22secs) Over $1 billion US

But the best bit for me is in this section transcribed to the best of my ability.
"Its appraisal drilling for the most part, and whilst its still risky, we are talking a much lower relative level of risk by comparison, particularly to any of our previous wells, but upside remains at upper end of scale"

To give that context, the previous best was IW2 which had a 50% commercial chance of success, I would be happy with, 50/50 on a potential rerate from $60m US market cap to over 1 billion, but the words used were "much lower relative risk by comparison" Odds over 50% are hard to come by in the oil game.