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20/09/19
19:09
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Originally posted by hottod:
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According to Richard Treagus, fourth quarter will be “exciting” on account of two “important milestones”:Commencement of Phase 3 of trofinetide in Rett syndrome Still no specific time given and still no indication as to whether the trial commencement will trigger any milestone payment. Will trial commencement add value to NEU in the eyes of the market if there is no milestone payment attached? If NEU’s stock price movement following commencement of Rett Phase 2 in late December 2012 and Rett paediatric Phase 2 in early April 2016 provides any guide, it is unlikely.Expected FDA granting of orphan designation to NNZ-2591 in each of Phelan-McDermid syndrome, Angelman syndrome and Pitt Hopkins syndrome This is said to be an important commercial milestone if granted because “it will add significant value and momentum in respect of our plans to move into clinical trials in 2020. “ I’m really not sure how orphan drug designation adds momentum to plans to move into clinical trials. And, although it would add to commercial value if the drug makes it to market, history suggests that receipt of ODD doesn’t necessarily add to company value in the eyes of the market. Receipt of ODD for trofinetide in Fragile X in late October 2013 didn’t raise the share price and, after receipt of ODD in Rett syndrome in mid-February 2015, NEU’s share price actually fell. Moving on from the two milestones, there is the brief discussion at the end of the announcement to the “process to evaluate corporate transactions”. I’m in agreement with Lost Out here. This is the main reason for this announcement. Neuren needed to advise the market that this process wasn’t going to be completed by the end of Q3, as previously flagged. The reason given by Richard Treagus for the extension to the process is “the importance of these near-term milestones”. So how might these “milestones” be relevant to/influence the potential types of corporate transactions?A ROW-only deal – frankly, I don’t see how these milestones might be seen as relevant to any ROW deal for trofinetide. So a ROW-only deal is looking an unlikely prospect, imo.Sale of trofinetide – I could see Acadia’s commencement of Phase 3 as being a possible prerequisite to another party’s purchase of trofinetide. And orphan designation adds some useful validation to NEU’s remaining assets? A possibility.Option over NNZ-2591 – perhaps Acadia isn’t keen on ROW rights for trofinetide (with no ex-US regulatory experience or sales force) and doesn’t want to buy the whole company at this stage, but is keen to lock in rights to NNZ-2591. ODD in three indications would help to justify this move to ACAD shareholders and an option to buy at this stage would involve a very modest outlay. If successful in trials, NNZ-2591 post-Phase 2 would be worth at least 10 times its realizable value today. Acadia could purchase with decreased risk and from a likely superior financial position. Perhaps an option for NNZ-2591 could occur in conjunction with licensing of ROW rights/sale of trofinetide to another party?Company acquisition - the seemingly obvious conclusion. If these two “milestones” were to have a significant, positive impact on market cap, then Neuren could command a higher sale price. But if the rise in market cap doesn’t eventuate, what then? Also, even with ODD, minimal value is still likely to be assigned to NNZ-2591 if sold at pre-clinical stage as part of a company sale. The further delay is disappointing. The end of Q3 marks 8 months since Torreya was appointed. And the commencement of Rett Phase 3 in Q4 will mark 7 years since Phase 2 commenced. Once more, we can only wait and see….
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i think now there is no sense speak about start ph2 about start torreya engagement.... we are closed to finalize all these step/key point so 7 year 5 years 4 3 2 1 1 month is not a problem. We wait from many years we still wait another few months. It's ok. Hottod I'm not saying no sense your post you're the best with sillazze only saying no sense be concern about delay timing patience wait.... we are so closed to finalize all our work now like said RT in ANN that we can stay in peace. only understand what RT want!!! Acadia can't buy all us.... initially they paid 4$ per share but now we add 2591 and 3 IND that is a catalyst for other IND in future bringing us to major degenerative conditions even if in preclinical stage. imho someone have to pay more more more tha 4$ a share. more time they wait... more they have to paid. iMHO.... my opinion and hope that has value = 0 obvious. apologies for my bad English.