My assumption was that efficacy trial lasts 12 weeks (3 months), and results announcement is not related to the trial extension to 1 year where all girls receive trof. If you include pre-trial/post-trial, you could be right in your 19-20 weeks assessment period per girl All milestone payments relates to results announcement date, none is related to beginning of trial or end of trial dates, I don't believe there will be such a milestone payment. Of course, if results are announced towards end of 2020/beginning of 2021 all dates for milestone payment go backwards accordingly. There are good chances, in my opinion, that positive results to trigger first milestone payment, that was one of my assumptions If the trial results announcement goes towards mid 2021 then the company needs a deal for ROW or nnz2591 to respect their statement for H2 2020 p2 trial for nnz2591. Anyway the company runs out of money in the first half of 2021, if not earlier, if no deal shows up or no milestone payment is done
As long as there is no side effect for trof, a modest efficacy shown in P3 results will get the approval, that's my worse case scenario, maybe I am dreaming too much considering we are talking about biotechs here, it's hard to believe for me there will be absolutely negative results in P3 which will cause FDA rejection
NEU Price at posting:
$1.99 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)