Hi Mate
There has not been a material appreciation of share price since the Godolphin IPO announcement, thus it is reasonable to assume that Spinout of NSW was always priced into ARL from day 1 of the ARL IPO.
I think it is also reasonable to assume that the NSW assets have always been priced in at very low to almost no value, therefore I do not expect much of a change in the ARL share price when the spinout occurs.
It is my opinion that the spinout of NSW from ARL does not diminish ARL, I feel that it enhances the prospect of ARL, my reasons are.
- ARL becomes less diversified and random geographically, reducing holding cost and resource allocation.
- ARL can focus intently on the task at hand being WA and its resources.
- ARL has always been known as a nickel and cobalt company, laterite and possibly sulfide.
- ARL partnership suitors will want an uncomplicated streamlined nickel cobalt play, this is facilitated largely but not entirely by the spinout.
- It is very hard to price ARL, diversified and unrelated ore reserves are rarely priced fairly because they are not easily understood.
- ARL is not easily understood, its complicated, requiring higher risk tolerance to compensate for unknowns.
There may be a price change in ARL, this could in fact be an uprate as opposed what people may think.
I am a student of this unpredictable beast, we may be emerging with more predictability and that is good.
RED
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