Ann: Investor Briefings, page-23

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justinmetals

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23/09/19

10:33

Post #: 40522853
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Originally posted by psi81 ↑

Go easy on the tinfoil hats guys - I know most of Santos's subsurface staff and I'm sure they are not faking or prolonging issues at Dukas in order to accumulate more Amadeus acreage, damage CTP's SP ahead of a takeover offer, or anything of that sort.

The most likely explanation is that they were only able to secure a 10,000 psi rig, had tenure obligations (and JV pressure from CTP) to drill Dukas, and so they went ahead knowing that in the upside case (ie if the well was a big success) they might not have the capacity to finish it safely. Now they need to secure a 15,000 psi rig which are rare as hen's teeth in Australia (if indeed there are any), and may need to be sourced overseas. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes well over a year to get one on site.

We need to keep in mind how overpressured this is. In normal drilling operations you'd have a mud weight around 9 ppg. You'd expect a pressure of around 10 ppg for a gas well, 13ppg is considered significantly overpressured. This was 10,000 psi at 3704m which is equivalent to almost 16ppg. That's the highest overpressure I've ever heard of in Australia and almost double the density of fresh water.

It's a pain but that's the situation. We'll have to focus on Range for our short term inspiration.

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At least it’s not a duster and it could be something else indeed. It may be a monster but is it not also fair to guess it may not be all that mega and just extremely high pressure because of the salt seal? How optimistic are you PSI? I know you’re conservative.

CTP Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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