Pretty optimistic. The risk is reservoir, as always in the Amadeus. And you're right, the overpressure could be due to a truly massive gas column under a salt seal, or it could be a smaller pocket that's just been compressed and had nowhere to go, and they drilled into an open fault and it would blow out in a few days. I have seen that plenty of times.
But it just feels to me like monster gas column, given the geological setting. A normal shale seal wouldn't be able to hold this much overpressure and definitely couldn't hold much helium. We know there is inert gas in this which is probably a mix of nitrogen and helium derived from radiogenic decay of granites below the Amadeus rocks, and we know there's a huge trap here at the top of the migration pathway from the granites, so it's reasonable to propose that this is one huge gas column collected from the whole trap area. If so, the last piece of the puzzle is finding some reservoir that allows commercial flow rates.
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