abn amro still think lani results in july, page-2

Results of LANI Phase 2 immininent...somehat nerve racking, and far from certain trials will be successful.

However if we get a strong positive in Phase 2....forget about relenza sales or the legal case. Roche toped at $3 billion PA....those peak years are gone, but LANI will be the market leader, that is certain.

I think management have an idea of results and cut the legal case, so as not to cap any blue sky the company may have, over having maybe losing and having to pay GSK legals.

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Suggest that even if you purchased the stock near its top....LANI success offers much more than just a get out at say that recent year $2.50 share price top.

At $2.50 its market cap is just under $600m

Why would it not dominate future pandemic sales, but strongly revitilise the worldwide influenza A B market.

Even a much dimished pandemic market, would still see huge Biota revenues and the end of the Gilead/Roache market domaninace.

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CS-8958 was designated as a priority consultation product by the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) in August 2006, which will give it priority for consultations on clinical trial planning and other issues. Daiichi Sankyo aims to file an NDA at the end of 2009 and is pursuing development in full consultation with the regulatory authorities and specialists. As measures to deal with new strains of influenza virus are enhanced, CS-8958 may make an important contribution by increasing the range of options available for treating and preventing flu infections.
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Daiichi still suggesting new drug application to go to Japan authorities at the end of next year. Influenza anti-viral market excluding stockpiling is extimated at $150M. Daiichi will market and produce the drug.....of which we are led to believe Biota will derive nett half of revenues.

Read disclosues....those revenues in 18 months from Japan alone would see the share price significantly higher than $2.50.

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Now what about getting LANI to market throughout the rest of the world. A question, I note that has been asked here.

Of course there is much precentant for Japan or Europe to undertake clinical trials independant of the FDA (US).

Here is a detailed link, which explains the process.A good read for keener investors.

Briefly approvals, obtained in Japan may be enought for the FDA to also give LANI the go ahead in the States. Anyway it does not matter...because at Phase 3 success and reaching the market in Japan, share price would be $5.

http://www.ascocancerfoundation.org/patient/Library/Cancer.Net+Features/Clinical+Trials+and+Research/Part+II:+Drug+Development+and+Approval