CYNATA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED (ASX:CYP) - CYP Trading - post Fuji validation, page-178 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by JB1975: ↑

I haven't checked that - if you and sigmadelta are both saying it I'm believing it.

But it seems to me that timing is very interesting at present. CYP directors or their wives will lose some opportunity for gain if in the money options ($1.022) aren't exercised by them before 17 November this year.

In my opinion they deserve to exercise those options and to get the benefit of them at market prices. And I'd even be okay with them selling shares (even if it reduced the share price temporarily) to get funds to buy the options.

I'm not being altruistic here I'd probably like to pick up a few more shares in the downward pressure that might be created in the short term by them doing that. As I believe some other long term bulls would. The buying looks good to me at present but add in the possibility of directors needing to exchange shares for funds to buy options and anytime they do that their volume could create downward pressure and the opportunity for buyers might on any given day be potentially better tomorrow - up until either we get news on Sumi or the options expire.

But whilst there is ongoing discussions with Sumi I don't believe they could sell their shares to exercise their options because they would potentially have insider information and so I believe they'd be prevented from trading.

The directors need a little window between option expiry in 17 November in which they could trade in my opinion.

As for Fuji - I don't believe there is any evidence left to suggest that there is an advantage for them in slow playing. QiQi and McNamm two posters I respect have suggested that might be happening but to me that doesn't seem to fit the circumstances as I perceive them.

I think Fuji now that they've committed to the GvHD license and agreed to make milestone payments would have a natural incentive to move forward on GvHD not with reckless speed (they need to set up manufacturing facilities and such at some point) but not with tardiness either because MSB have a product that is competing in the space and if MSBs produce is essentially curing people of GvHD (CYPs MSCs seemed to in the 15 patient pool of phase 1 - we haven't seen longer term follow up data) then those people aren't available to be sold the new product.

GvHD if cured in a patient makes the market size one patient smaller. What makes the market size bigger is more bone marrow transplants occuring and so new patients coming in. This is a rough way to look at human suffering but its also market reality - you can't repeat business if the first good MSC treatment permanently resolves the condition.

Sooner CYP's MSCs are in the market the sooner CYP's GvHD product starts eating MSBs lunch. Fujis slowness or tardiness (assuming a better, lower cost product) would be throwing away money.

As for Sumi - they are in negotiations with Riovant. I need to ckeck deeper but they may have mutually agreed on no takeovers or acquisitions prior to the end of October. So Sumi might not be able to close out a CYP offer until the end of October (thats possible - but I don't think probable).

I took Shaws point to be - re the Sumi interest in Riovant - that Sumi certainly had the money for a offer to CYP available should they choose to get serious about making one. It is also clear from a quick review of Sumis presentations and announcements on their website that they are actively looking for some strategic acquisitions that can be potential revenue earners for them to replace a soon to be out of patent coverage revenue earner that they've been able to rely on for some time. LATRUDA an anti-psychotic drug appears to have been a mainstay of their revenue which is coming to an end and Sumi recognize they need other high potential products. CYP makes sense in that scenario as a strategic acquisition.

A lot of timing related considerations are relevant to CYPs share price at present.

Expand

The 500k Nov $1.022 Options are left as follows, as Chiplin has exercised and Wotton has early exercised 100k of his 200k.

Left to pay are....

1. Ross 200k
2. Webse 200k
3. Wotton 100k

of course, Wotton also has $3m to pay in Nov on top of the 100k above

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	50000	16.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50000

16.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.0¢	23813	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

17.0¢

23813

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	50000	0.165
4	47240	0.155
4	161673	0.150
1	5000	0.145
2	45000	0.140

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50000

0.165

47240

0.155

161673

0.150

5000

0.145

45000

0.140

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.170	23813	3
0.175	55250	1
0.180	62619	3
0.185	35990	1
0.195	19300	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.170

23813

0.175

55250

0.180

62619

0.185

35990

0.195

19300

(20min delay)
Last 17.0¢		Change 0.015(9.68%)		Mkt cap ! $38.41M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
15.5¢	17.0¢	15.5¢	$47.10K	289.1K

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