"The secondary end point, in terms of the recurrence of heart attacks, is more challenging and the broker is less certain, given only four months of follow-up and a relatively small study population.
A significant secondary signal would be a major positive surprise and the broker expects a reaction in the stock of around 17% is possible"
and
" .... best case scenario, where a dose-dependent statistically significant reduction in major cardiovascular events is demonstrated, the stock could add around $10, Citi asserts. Going into the conference, the broker envisagea the stock fairly priced, given its flu business, while poorly performing, is gradually improving and there is increasing volatility in the haemophilia market. Citi does not include CSL112 explicitly in valuation until there is greater clarity about a phase III clinical trial and a corporate strategy on the product."
Given the extent of CSL's business activities and the fact that only about $600m has been spent on CSL112 I really can't see 30% being knocked off SP.
CSL Price at posting:
$234.44 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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