first oil flows, page-7

Sana, you might like to look at AWE when they announced first oil at Tui (~18,000 bopd for AWE's 42.5%), sp around $3.05. They had been trading at $3.67 exactly one month earlier. Production steadily ramped up from there (AWE's share to ~22,000 bopd) and AWE went back up for next month or so to around $3.60 again, before steadily falling for another couple of months.

All of which just goes to show strat's answer is pretty accurate; it's impossible to predict these things because of different mkt caps and a vast number of other variables, especially around mkt sentiment and other 'unmeasureables'.

I this case OEL & NDO will join the ranks of producers for the first time. AWE (much larger cap) was already one.