Not at all, Swiss bank accounts are not what they used to be! Personally I have faith in the management team and think there is something else happening that they cannot disclose just yet.
I'm suggesting that GSK may be looking to partner LANI and or other Biota pipelines. GSK is making itself a leader in the area and now they have proof NMI's have a market (looking more at Tamiflu sales rather than Relenza alone); there is just cause to settle the litigation if a partnership agreement is close at hand.
How could GSK sign up to LANI with the Relenza court case dragging on for years? Get rid of the litigation with a small payment and then they are free to get back in the good books with Biota for LANI. I remember reading or hearing a podcast where someone in Biota mentioned it's possible LANI will be partnered to LANI (I could be mistaken though...). I'd be dissapointed to see a low royalty of say 20% (10% for Biota)... I'll be looking for 50% (25% for Biota) including a large upfront payment.
Just a thought... LANI Phase II was a big leap forward for Biota. In my mind if it has the same or better efficacy than current NMI's then the other aspects of the drug will give it monopolistic power. Keep in mind that Biota has already been given financial incentives by health bodies to develop LANI's and I only see this push accelerating.
Short term though with no announcements and with royalties for Relenza pretty slack I don't really see what's going to drive the price. 12-24 months will be a different story... just wish I had more cash at the moment!
It's a gamble, but gee what biotech isn't!
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