whats the deal, page-10

For all looking pessimistically at this stock keep the following in mind:

- The GSK Vaccine - Can only be used on one strain of influenza virus, i.e. the strain its was developed to prevent. It is also a two stage process. An initial shot and one three months later. For that reason it is unsuitabable for pandemic situations and for govt and health organisation stcokpiling as they will not know what strain they are dealing with, mutations of viral strains, the time issue (they need something that works instantly not which MAY work in three months after the second course. After three months half a community may be infected) etc. Relenza has shown itslef resilient against all strains to date. Relenza will complement any vaccine;

- Current stockpiles of anti virals Tamiflu and Relenza are coming to their use by dates. Health experts are also recommending an increase in the percentage of zanamivir held in all stcokpiles;

- Resistancee becoming evident in somee situations to Tamiflu (ostlamvir);

- Trial with GSK was originally to start this month and was later pushed out. GSK may have delayed orders to present an image of decining sales in the quarter prior to the trial commencement;

- Had BTA pursued action with GSK and incurred further legal costs (i.e. $20 million per year) until trial completion (2009-2010), say another $40 million. Even if BTA won, however was awarded a reduced amount than they were asking, say $250 million based on courts opionion of the worth of damages. Now keep in mind from that $250 mill reduce by future legal costs ($40 mill) and legal costs to date ($40 mill). $170 mill after legals. Then deduct royalties received to date as they would have to have been repaid (i have not calculateed this figure) but lets say $120 mill. So you end up with $50 mill but in another year and a half or two years. And not guaranteed;

Cheers

- The wording with regards to building a healthy working relationship with GSK may allude to a future collaboration as Portable Alpha also suggests. It dos sugeest that thee door has been left open.