CGB - 1.9c to 7.2c - What will happen in the next 6 months., page-836

Evening Finn

The answer to that question depends on many things.

However, if you make a 10% return in a week ... well the annualised figure is ... very attractive.

Why do holders not sell when their investment appreciates by 10% plus. Where the hell do you get a +10% on your money these days? To be honest I have done it once or twice before myself.

The last run of CGB from 0.023c to 0.051 - many opportunities in that run for profit. Yet - I wonder how many grabbed them.

Had I bought into the cap raise (0.35) I would have dumped the whole lot somewhere between 4 and 5c - no doubts no qualms. In my view until this company represents a viable commercial enterprise - it's a trading vehicle.

Do the numbers if you want to.

Purchase shares through the cap raise at 0.035 (broking costs and CGT excluded.)

Hope my maths is correct.

Sell at 0.04 = +14.28%
Sell at 0.041 = +17.14%
Sell at 0.042 = +20%
Sell at 0.043 = +22.85%
Sell at 0.044 = +25.71%
Sell at 0.045 = +28.57%
Sell at 0.046 = +31.42%
Sell at 0.047 = +34.28%
Sell at 0.048 = +37.14%
Sell at 0.049 = +40%
Sell at 0.05 = +42.85%
Sell at 0.051 = +45.71%

Now ask yourself - who held on and has now ridden the SP down to 0.027? Against the cap raise price the current price of 0.027 represents -22.85% loss.

You may hear people blathering on about taxes this and taxes that - thing is - you will never go broke taking profits.

On my 0.027 parcel today I will need a very good reason not to sell between 0.03 (+11.11%) and 0.033 (+22.22%). If it runs up hard definitely 0.035 (+29.62%). Take a little bit and leave something on the table. Greed is a real killer - I think!

Stop loss set at 0.025 - if that is hit that will mean a loss of 7.4% (risk v reward). A 7.4% loss is about all I can stomach.

Good luck with all of your decisions.

BTW ... have you ever read anything about opportunity cost? Definitely not trying to be impolite but that many people I mention that concept to tend to stare at me ... blankly. Might just be me though!