Tom - I've worked it out! Thanks very much for sharing your thoughts.
The average spend on PDLs for the last 5 years is ~$80M per year. The same average taken over the last 10 years is ~$65M.
There's pretty good correlation (R-squared = 0.74) between annual spend on PDLs, and PDL segment revenue.
The cumulative 5 and 10-year moving averages line up consistently too:
If I use the highest conceivable estimate of PDL expenditure necessary to maintain the company's competitive position, along with a Price/(10-year average owner earnings) ratio of 10, I arrive at a buy target of around $1.15. This price, to me, would provide a substantial margin of safety.
To everyone who reads this post: don't trust strangers on the Internet. It should go without saying that this is not financial advice. I'm not a professional investor, and I have lost money in the past. Always DYOR.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- CLH
- Ann: Annual Report to shareholders
Ann: Annual Report to shareholders, page-9
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 8 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CLH (ASX) to my watchlist
Currently unlisted public company.
The Watchlist
1CG
ONE CLICK GROUP LIMITED
Mark Waller, MD
Mark Waller
MD
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online