anatomy of a takeover

Lets do a SIMPLE comparison with HNC Oz Ltd (nee Abra Mining AII)

HNC have "valued" AII at around 120 mill bucks per their 70% takeover at 83c

For that they get a large low grade resource of dubious development value this side of next resources bull market sitting in the middle of nowhere with no plant even on the drawing board. Yet they are happy to pay so much for such.

On the other hand CMR has a larger, richer reserve base WITH PLANT onsite ready to rock on NOW and located where u would dream of having it ... and now at similar market cap to AII "value". And there is no COBALT at AII and COBALT is a PRIORITY need for HNC just as LEAD is looking ahead to the hybrids future.

If u were an anlayst worth yr salt what fair value would u give relative to what HNC have already exposed ?

IMO HNC have chosen AII for future use inc

(1) predatory vehicle

(2) leverage vehicle, espesh when it comes to sulphides JV

(3) means of tying up the Oz LEAD resource base

All things considered, IMO HNC would apply a relative 500 mill buck predation FV for CMR ... and they will "use" AII vehicle to ensure max for their buck when it comes to sulphides JV

That kinda supports my my "likely" 350 takeover bid to nail a "friendly" 70% of CMR like they just nailed a "friendly" 70+ % of AII ... for after all they need to remain "friendly" with the FIRB AND need to be seen to be "friendly" to Board and shareholders.

At 350 they will make remaining major shareholders happy and get an endorsement from the Board as being in shareholders' best interests haha. Nice way out for the Board's current predicament ?

And at 350 they will ALSO get the URANIUM, the 2 million ounces gold in Peru, the extensive resource base expansion potential in the Jungle ... AND the virgin NSW stuff Dad;s Army thinks so highly of ... ALL of which market gives a NIL VALUE to atm.

THATs the "SPEC" I am interested in now ... and if I cant achieve my L/T price targets cos of "un-Olympian mis-timing", then am happy and flexible enough to re-position my holdings for at least some kinda compromise at lower price targets to achieve similar (albeit more modest) goals.

IMO the CRAAP about end of resources superbull going around now is an unexpected bonus to the faithful able to take advantage cos of their GORM inspired cashed position.
A little beyond this, the global FEDs have to ramp up their printing presses if they wanna keep the MATRIX intact and that means only one direction for the real stuff beyond current opportunistic pause. This pause also provides major opportunity for the predators to swoop the fell.

Kondratieff resources supercycle is in a temporary technical retrace as the yanks try to manufacture support of their USD and it AINT GONNA LAST ... in fact current delays to projects unable to raise cash means them who already have gone over the danger line (phew !) will be around to reap the benefits earlier and for longer.

It normally takes 10 years for discovery to get to producer status ... we are about to become a PRODUCER ... and at extreme firesale bargain price anyway I look at it.

But its all personal opinion and am playing it as such. I could be wrong (?)

Anyway back to butchering some more bear meat today ....

IMBOOC

PS A further personal gripe is the lack of Chairman's simple address which should have accompanied the recent Coffee House secured loan ... something like, "I am lending the money cos I believe in the long term future of the Jungle". Lack of such only serves to fuel wild imaginations as to the underlying motives espesh given the lack of support ... in fact might even say ... the push down in share price since!

Only speculating but I like to see things done cleanly for everyone's welfare and so far, HATE the deafening silence. I shouldnt NEED to SPECULATE about ANYTHING at this stage !!!

IMVBOOC