OK I will list the variables I am aware of (in no particular order of importance), I welcome anyone showing me which ones I have missed:
1) Vacancy Rates 2) Available land for new housing 3) Cost of new land for new housing 4) Interest rates 5) Average Household income 6) Health of the economy 7) Population Growth 8) New Houses being built 9) Cost of new housing when built 10) Persons per square metre of land 11) Persons per household 12) Population movements inter-state and intra-state 13) Relative attractiveness of other forms of investment 14) Social trends (apartments, sea-change, inner city, tree change, sharing of houses, bigger houses, smaller houses, boomers retiring, divorce rates etc)
Have I missed any?
Now when you look at all these you must keep one thing at the forefront of your mind at all times. A roof over your head is not discrectionary, in some way, make or fashion you need a place to sleep, eat and all the other things. This is true for all the people in all the cities. Keep thinking about that as this discussion progresses.
Once we establish what the variables are, assuming I have missed one or two, then we can decide on the effect of each of these variables.
Finally, we can make guesses at which way each variable is likely to go in the next few years.
Once that is all done a considered, thought-through forecast can be made.
Let's see where all this will lead us. Are you all with me on this?
