housing finance annual rate weakest in 13 yrs, page-79

So many great posts on this thread, I am loving it.

Even though there is much disagreement about what will happen over the next two or so years, at least there is sensible and calm discussion with people putting forward their research and their logic in support of their conclusions.

I will try to respond to individual posts as I think I can add some value but I am time-constrained atm so may have to come back later.

StevieG, you should look at Steven Keen's history rather than just hos website. On his website he controls everything that is said and any dissenting opinion is not shown. He has a history of negative views, his current views are not new. His 2004 book "Debunking Economics--the Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences" was yet another attack oriented book and he stands alone, which is where I think he likes to be.

As far as "fundamentals" are concerned there is room for disagreement as we have seen on this thread. What are the true figures? Whatever is put forward, it is regarded with suspicion by those who don't find it supports their view. Maybe this is rightly so, maybe there is a lot of lying going on.

So when Keen "looks at real fundamentals" whose real fundamentals?

Then there is the weighting to fundamental drivers which must be decided upon, who decides that? Even after we have decided the weightings, then we need to draw conclusions which is yet another hot-bed of disagreement.

Keen has always tended towards the "Chicken Little" school of economics and he has been forecasting the end of the world as we know it for quite some time. He may be right but so far he has not been right. My own personal belief is that Keen goes through the same process we all go through, fundamentals, weightings, conclusions but at each step he takes the extreme and this has a magnifying effect on his final conclusions.

Only time will tell whether he is right but I personally will not put my investment life on-hold based on his forecasts.

Haka, you are on the ground in the UK so you will have different data than we will. Our media information goes through many filters before it gets to us and there agendas at each step. The same is true for the info you are getting but I suspect that the ultimate news will be slightly different for you than it will be for us.

Since you are there, I think you can give us a more accurate view of what is actually happening simply because you can speak with people directly or you can walk the streets of the areas in question. I would appreciate any information you can supply.

Personally, I find your conclusion that "cant see the supply or demand being overwhelming for either side" is more in keeping with my view of the property world. If housing was discretionary, it would be a different story but I keep urging people to remember that every one who sells a house still needs to live in another one. This is why the "crash" can only happen if most share with other people or if there is a massive over-supply due to over-building (as happened in the USA).

Treggs, the XXJ funds do not invest in residential real-estate. They invest in retail and commercial real estate. They do not invest in 4 bedroom brick veneers in the suburbs, nor do they invest in townhouses in trendy inner-suburbs.

You have made a massive mistake in equating the two. I don't know that your friends and family will be thanking you for your advice in coming years.

Ofcourse time will tell and I may have to eat my words but I have not been wrong yet. I don't mean to sound arrogant but I have been here before, argued this before, and I see the same errors being made again.

There wll be suburbs which will drop but they will benefit other suburbs as people move from one house to another.

THE ONLY WAY MASSIVE FALLS CAN OCCUR IS IF WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE PER SQUARE METRE OF LAND OR WE CREATE HEAPS MORE HOUSES OR IF THERE ARE HEAPS LESS PEOPLE.