I have no doubt that if Jewel is successful and someone want's to pay and offers big bucks for it, they would accept. After all, selling revalued land at a significant multiple is their mojo and that is one thing that is unequivocal about BRK. The question then would be what would generate a better result for shareholders, returning some then, or reinvesting that cash . If BRK were to pocket say US$ 20 mill for their interest in the Jewell unit, hand over ~ $ 5 mill to BM as per their , that alone would be confirmation that their model is valid and would relate the stock. Would handing back some of the remaining cash be more beneficial to shareholders?...hard to know really, a bigger cash pile would certainly offer greater opportunity to BRK. They could potentially bid for more primary acres than otherwise would be the case.
I agree, selling Jewell and potentially giving cash back to shareholders is an option they should consider and potentially put down on paper, but only if it is clear that is an option, amount a number of options. The last thing one old want is to have the company commit to a course of action , only to fail to follow the commitment because of one circumstance or another. The environment BRK and others operate is a moving feast. look at the current leasing situation, when BRK started on the SWISH leasing program, they wanted to have at least 10 operated units and 8000 net SWISH acres. They were the only group with a targeted strategy to lease within their AOI. The competition got wind of what was happening and quickly started picking up primary leases within the BRK target area, cutting the opportunity for BRK for easy pickings and causing a significant increase in lease purchasing prices. BRK will be lucky to lease 4000 net acres in SWISH in this first round of activity.
How many more acres they will be able to pick up will depend on what happens when the drilling commitments need to be complied with. Apart from CLR, Casillas, Roan and Cheyenne, most of the parties who picked up acres in the SWISH AOI are purely land speculators, not drilling operators. BRK through BM, once the Jewell well is drilled will have proven their operator ship credentials, and will be in a great position to deal their way into drilling units that the land speculators hold. Obviously, the other serious operators will do the same, but this is a further opportunity for BRK to increase their SWISH position.
There are many cogs to the BRK wheel and while they need to communicate and articulate their activity much more clearly, they should not commit to one course of action at the expense of another IMO.
Cheers
Dan
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