The formation I’m talking about is a Double Top (the two peaks at ~26) the low between them is 9.4c, which I know would be odd and out of school for a double top pattern. Now after the second top of 26c we were back to 9.4c and now even lower, however reaching 9.4 from the sp point of view, would be the confirmation of the double top if we assume that’s what it is. Volume only increase slightly on the day we went below 9.4c however there was also a small gap down (August 4th). Since then we hit 8.2c but recovered to the long term support line on the day to close at 8.5c, which in my mind doesn’t mean it is all over now. The double top pattern would be stronger than that and the down trend should continue. As mentioned the target would be in the area of 3.4 - 3.5c.
Guys this is not to be taken as a down ramp, you know how I feel about the longer term of CVI, it is just looking at possibilities and I’m not entirely certain if a double top can be applied for this. That’s why I asked the question.
Obviously I have my own views on that point and tried to mix it in with a bit of FA, time frames like Angolan election, delays in forthcoming ann etc, etc and thought well here might be something cooking. For my own reasons I have made the long term trend line, which is currently positioned at ~8.4 the decider. If sp will stay above that line it’s not a double top, if it falls below we may see sp as low as 3.4, which is the target of the double top and around there sp would find good support as well.
Now we all know that especially for CVI a few weeks without any significant ann is poison for the sp. Personally I don’t believe we will have many if any until after the Angolan election and even then, I don’t think that contracts will be signed on Sept. 7th just because the election is in the bag, so imho there will be further delays until about the end of September or early October.
Secondly it has been obvious to many that CVI’s sp has been fiddled with, so why should this stop now? 1bucchus has written about his theory on that.
Personally I don’t believe that speculation on for what may happen after the election will push sp higher from now on. Punters on CVI usually wait until they see it happen.
Before the CVI story will unfold, I see the DOW doing a turn to go down big time, starting very soon and taking CVI’s sp with it at least to some degree and imho it will take the real big ann to turn it around again.
So as you can see I do believe it eventually will happen, the question is from which level.
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