Ann: Potential for 1.2 billion barrels of oil offshore The Gambia, page-36

With all due respect Mayo, either you have a short memory or are blatantly ramping with the statement of "Get Erins share of The Gambia blocks tied up, then announce the potential size of the resource, these guys are smart."

Todays release is actually a downgrade on the figures FAR have already released to the market on 4/3/2019 for both the Saloo and Malo prospects, with an upgrade to Bambo. The net difference of today's announcement regarding the three mature prospects is a total increase of 24mmbo.

Of concern (to me anyway) is the highest chance of success prospect, Saloo, which was quoted at 70% COS (5/9/2018) has decreased by 95mmbo from 247mmbo to 152mmbo. Bambo has increased in prospective size by 137mmbo from 317mmbo to 454mmbo however the COS has been quoted as only 18% way back on 21 November 2017 and again on 5/9/2018.

This downgrade to Saloo is probably why the market has largely yawned at this announcement. Had Saloo, with its much higher Chance of Success and proximity/connectivity to SNE been upgraded by 95mmbo as opposed to downgraded by 95mmboe then this would have been a much better outcome (from a risk/theoretical perspective before drilling anyway).

So today's announcement is largely a reallocation of barrels from a higher chance of success prospect to a lower chance of success prospect, with the addition of a new prospect.

A simple weighted average mathematical calculation reveals the following on the prospectivity of the Saloo/Bambo well based solely off the limited information we (the market) have:
Before today -
247 x 70% + 317 x 18% = 229.96mmbo on a chance of success weighted average drill result based on what had been released previously.

Now we are looking at:
152 x 70% + 454 x 18% = 188.12mmbo from the same drill (assuming the chances of success have not changed, which were interestingly not released today)


Malo has been downgraded by 18mmboe.

Jobo is a new prospect of 280mmboe. If and when Jobo or Malo are ever drilled I wonder what our working interest will be in the A2/A5 blocks.



Now how much do we think WPL should pay me for that lengthy, detailed, substantiated and logical non ramping post about FAR?