Now that the analysts have had time to digest the details, the bottom line looks something like this:
FY20 concentrate production to be maintained at approximately 75% of the current rate i.e. 75% of 183,000 – 193,000 dmt (FY19 guidance) or 137,250 t - 144,750 t
Revenues will likely fall to circa US$500/t
Costs of production will improve as 25% of stockpiles have already been expensed ( as per Alan Rule in the call). Assuming mining extraction is 40% of the cost, 25% of 40% = 10% reduction in costs or US$38.70/ t (US$387 x 10%)
Revenue for FY20 is estimated at US$68.625m to US$72.375m
Cash cost is estimated at US$47.8m to US$50.4m
Gross margin range is US$20.825m to US$21.96m
Valuation for Mt Cattlin is circa US$166-170m.
I expect to see some revisions from the analysts tomorrow in the order of 10 - 25%. The action this afternoon is the forerunner to these valuation reports coming out.
It's going to be hard yakka for the longs in the short term.
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