My Geniuses in New York have to spend their cash - they had almost 50% of their money on the sidelines a couple of weeks ago. I know there are no guarantees in anything in this game but markets don’t normally top out when there is so much cash on the sidelines. These “Masters of the Universe” have now spent some of their cash but they still have quite a bit of ammunition.
S&P tested its exact high although some of the other sectors fell short of that but adding it all up, I have to probably think that they are still going to be able to find a rabbit or two – but these rabbits are starting to get a bit worn and weary. Could we be about to see “developments” on the trade talks. Definitely looks as though the market is expecting “something”. But there is one thing for sure – if Wall Street doesn’t break topside right here and now, then it is finished. Next few days are going to be crucial.
Gold broke its downtrend but unfortunately closed near its low. Silver doing a great job of leading but here again Friday’s trading saw the price retreat from its earlier highs. Constructive but disappointing that it hadn’t carried through with more style. I also follow the gold price in yuan very closely. As with the US dollar price, broke the downtrend but couldn’t hold that level into the close.
Everything else seems to be just waiting for some definite signals – grains have been weaker – crude trying to rally. Interested in things like copper, nickel and zinc what might loosely be considered “alternative” markets. One ETF in New York I am watching is euphemistically called BATT – so called battery stocks. Had one day of good volume last week. Needs more but enough to “spark” my interest.
The XJO was doing a good job on Friday of trying to lead the world as it pushed out of a wide-ranging triangle that has enclosed all trading for the past few months. Going to be a tough job to push higher. Liked the look of XMD – midcaps – but some of the other sectors looked very lethargic.
Down at the bottom end of the market, as mentioned before my break, I have constructed my own index of “lithium hopefuls”. At that time, I was a bit optimistic that we might have been nearing the low as, for a couple of days, the highest rated posts on Hot Copper were not lithium stocks. Unfortunately, that situation did not continue. I know I have upset a couple of people with my view that lithium stocks would not see the end of their bear market until all the forlorn lovers gave up. About the best thing I can say about this index at the moment is that the rate of fall has slowed …. a bit!
And now for a change of pace – unfortunately my husband has developed a major health issue so, as everyone will easily understand, it means many things are likely to change in our household and it is possible that I might not always be able to spend the time required to closely study all the markets. Writing these notes each morning has meant a lot to me and I would like to be able to continue but I’m sure everyone would be very pleased to know that I have already learnt how to turn the dishwasher on!!
(20min delay)