O.K
@tigers2008 so i'm not going to dump the exact number - because I feel it a lot easier to understand if we simply use the broader and and rounded up numbers. besides this I have also done the math which supports closely the approximates accuracy within reasonable limits.
It's not my only concern in the ' burning ' of the Soph's and Adviser's on their 167,500,000 1.5 cent options which expire in 63 days from now on the 31st January 2020. That in itself is important because of the many who would have been burnt on the OB's. A company can ill afford to keep doing this .....particularly when the are within their grasp being near ' in the money ' . It's more the realization that given the projected SOI of approximately 5 billion shares , it would be reasonable to suggest that from here on in , there will be no more ' Free ' attaching options , and quite the opposite in fact with nor Company traded options being available on market beyond the OC's. Given this possibility , these are ' one off ' opportunities to cherry pick some low lying milestone accumlulative / replacement ( or Top up ) Capital along the path of the Companies development. So No - I don't believe it best to let then slip through ' unconverted ' given all the commission's which are needing to be paid ' over and above ' the development cost of CTM's projects. A ' bird in hand ' if you like is worth 2 in the bush.
Whilst ' eliciting ' funds from Vale as you say is most likely inevitable , it may not be likely in the nearer term to in part advance the SP and valuation of CTM forwards. And unfortunately , the dilution has already occurred - and that is my next point . So what we have here has been no less than a major structural change in the company's share register . So using rounded numbers and assuming that the Tranche 2 shares found their way into the Top 20 as mentioned previously - we have had an approximate 75 % shift and increase in the Top 20 and a corresponding 25% dilution to previous smaller shareholders .
This in itself is not a bad thing if the accumulation and allocations have been based on the CTM's ' sales pitch and the markets perception's of the potential value creation from CTM's combined projects....with the release of value from Jambreiro no less important than say Jaguar in my opinion. Because if it has , then we can presume they will have fallen into ' sticky ' long term hands.
O.K , so if we now look at the remaining capacity raising abilities under 7.1 and 7.1A , we see we have the potential to raise another 947,642,840 shares between now and the resetting of the limits at the next AGM in end of May 2020. For ease of calculating round number and simplicity , lets call it another Billion shares coming on before May / June 2020. This of course also allowing for Terrativa allocation milestones , and other issues including the 1.5 cent options. My assumptions would be that the 900 odd thousand raising would primarily be a ' re-balancing ' to compensate in part for the current dilution to shareholders. So continuing on with this analysis , we would project an approximate SOI of 5 Billion with a potential dilution effect of 20 - 25 % to small shareholders which has begun with this current raising ( diluting 25% currently).
It would be my opinion then , that we will almost certainly see a 1 for 4 rights issue based on the 947,642,840 shares available in the current remaining capacities.
On top of that , lets then present the real possibility with 5 Billion shares on issue that a ' Consolidation ' will occur in the next trading year which follows the 2021 AGM , and after the conversions of the OC's in 2021 - because why would you have one earlier and before raising a further additional and approximate amount of $20 million ( from capacity limits + unlisted 1.5 cent options ) which would be easier done at the current and lower SP levels....and as we've just seen with the Billion odd shares just issued.
In my view the market knows all this , and in part explains the unusual buying support at the current 1.5 cent level. The reason I say this , is the clear intent from the smaller shareholders who have perhaps been denied the participation in this Billion share placement , and want or need to increase their holding to avoid the dilution effect on their previous holdings. On the other hand If you are now in the potential 45% of the Top 20 , you don't need to accumulate necessarily as your ' Belly ' is now full. In addition to that, the Top 20 cannot really accumulate much more due to obvious availability and supply from the DILUTED small end of town. If they do , this would obviously be a significant driver in further substantial appreciation in the SP.
With a consolidation looking on the cards at the earliest of May / June 2021 , there is obviously plenty of time for the re-balancing and re-distributions to occur within the Share Register , and this is why I feel they ( the Top 20 ) can now dictate terms and control and Cap the SP if they so wish to trickle out the supply side. I also feel this is what we have clearly been seeing with respect to those nice ' neat ' little 1 million share offerings on the sell side.
So yes , this is why I feel the conversion of the 1.5 cent unlisted option's expiring in
63 trading days from now are more important than not being the first ' milestone ' if you like and a clear indication of growth in the projects moving forward. Because for this to occur , the SP will no doubt have to be setting new highs of 2 cents or above IMO. And this is why I am concerned that they are not doing enough to get this SP moving .
Plus who is potentially going to participate in a rights issue if there has been no ' substantive ' progress made on the SP in potentially 6 - 7 months. However , if we we're offered them between now and Christmas at 1.5 , it may in fact be a different story......
And then perhaps an underwriting deal for the 1.5 cent unlisted options.....
(20min delay)