At last, someone is getting close to what I perceive as the crux of STX's forward problem! I sold out because, while this is a great discovery, fantastic rates and probably big volumes, they have no market, nor access to market for the foreseeable future. They had to CR because there is no hope of debt funding and that's because there is no clear market. Now that BPT/Mitsui have Beharra Springs Deep as well as Waitsia to feed into their established market (small as it may be), there is no way they will back out their own production to let a third party enter. And as for a joint LNG project, you should ask who will fund it? Why would STX will get a meaningful share without proven reserves and established long-term productivity?
I'm afraid that STX will get stymied at every turn from getting any sort of free leg up into a gas market. Beach/Mitsui have the whip hand and will use it ruthlessly. STX are likely to get frozen out of any market activity and will eventually sell (preferable) or be sold after a protracted period of stagnation. Ironically, this is one of the great finds of the last few years. Simply wrong place, wrong time, wrong leverage. Sorry, but SELL.
mutineer
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