CVN 10.8% 16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

are they good value yet, page-13

  1. 1,138 Posts.
    Dargie,

    The last independent reserves audit was Gaffney Cline Dec 31st 2007.

    It had 2P reserves at 11.4mmbo to CVN.

    Page 10 of the June 2008 Investor presentation quotes a crude sale price of approx 75% to 85% of WTI

    So using US$120 bbl x 80% we get US$96bbl.

    11,400,000 x US$96 = US$1,094,400,000

    Page 10 of the June investor presentation quotes Gaffney Cline "company take equates to approx 30% future nett revenue after taxes and costs"

    For the purpose of a line in the sand, we will use that approximation of operating costs, royalty, SRB and company tax.

    Thus US$1,094,400,000 x 30% = US$328,320,000

    With approx 672,000,000 shares on issue -

    US$328,320,000 / 672,000,000 = US$0.4886 cents per share

    Say Aust$ = 0.90 US$

    We get Aust$0.5429 per share.

    This is using reserves figures from Dec 31st 2007. Since then even with a few dusters, there is every indication that reserves will be significantly higher.

    But if revenue streams ratchet up, I assume the 30% figure will become more effected by windfall profits tax.

    Nevertheless we see a worth for CVN closer to mid 50's than mid 30s. Good time to hop on.

 
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