Dargie,
The last independent reserves audit was Gaffney Cline Dec 31st 2007.
It had 2P reserves at 11.4mmbo to CVN.
Page 10 of the June 2008 Investor presentation quotes a crude sale price of approx 75% to 85% of WTI
So using US$120 bbl x 80% we get US$96bbl.
11,400,000 x US$96 = US$1,094,400,000
Page 10 of the June investor presentation quotes Gaffney Cline "company take equates to approx 30% future nett revenue after taxes and costs"
For the purpose of a line in the sand, we will use that approximation of operating costs, royalty, SRB and company tax.
Thus US$1,094,400,000 x 30% = US$328,320,000
With approx 672,000,000 shares on issue -
US$328,320,000 / 672,000,000 = US$0.4886 cents per share
Say Aust$ = 0.90 US$
We get Aust$0.5429 per share.
This is using reserves figures from Dec 31st 2007. Since then even with a few dusters, there is every indication that reserves will be significantly higher.
But if revenue streams ratchet up, I assume the 30% figure will become more effected by windfall profits tax.
Nevertheless we see a worth for CVN closer to mid 50's than mid 30s. Good time to hop on.
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