A2M 1.50% $5.90 the a2 milk company limited

4m 1920FY estimate, page-3

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    Based on the last 2 years I am going for around $480m but would not be surprised if it is materially higher or lower than this. Last year the revenue per month for the 4 months was 5% higher than the revenue per months over the last Q3 FY19.
    A bearish way to interpret the table below would be to say in first four months of FY18 the revenue growth over the previous 3 months was 22% and this fell to just 5% in the following year. If that patten continues, there might be negative revenue growth in these 4 months over the 3 months of last year. I am not suggesting this will be the case, just pointing out that the data can be extrapolated in different ways giving completely different answers.
    I think the highest likelihood is that the revenue per month will be within a few percent of the revenue last year so I am expecting the 4m revenue ot be $474m and $502m (an increase of between 27% and 33% over the last year). The reason I am expecting flatish growth to Q4 19 is that there has been no change to packaging or other hiccups in manufacturing in these 4 months so it is unlikely that sales fell. I think (as I always have!) that the risk is to the upside but I have not had any positive surprises of late so not expecting anything huge.

    Interested to see how others interpret the data below. Maybe there are explanations for the fluctuations in growth in 4m vs Q3 of the previous year that I don't know about. https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1808/1808011-3be4dc11d66389fef8dc701df733aa88.jpg
    One thing that does appear more certain is that whatever the growth rate for the first 4 months, the full year growth rate will be very close to it.
 
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