SP1 0.00% $1.07 southern cross payments ltd

Ann: Response to ASX Query Letter, page-832

  1. 1,180 Posts.
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    Don't think the guidance matters a lot, even if they hit it. It was already trading a >60x forward guidance. That's huge multiples. Even if it pulls back to 30x forward PE, it's still a high multiple. It's now going to be considered by every insto to have a high compliance risk - can't see them forking out that sort of multiple. Long term, still looks OK - as you implied, positive earnings is a good way to soften the impact - but in the short term...ouch.

    The ARR estimates have been propelling the SP higher constantly, but they won't as much any more, since ISX have come out and confirmed that they're based on estimates. Frankly, that shocked me. I expected that they monitored the turnover going through the systems, and then just annualised a week/fortnight's turnover. Not the best way of estimating, but still reasonable. To base it on customer application guesses is pretty questionable.

    I'd love you to be right... Unfortunately, I just don't think you will be. I think it's pretty well a lock to open sub 80. Sub 60 wouldn't surprise me either.
 
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