that's great but how come you have got it so wrong to date ? where did your analysis fail, to see you sell stock at 34 cents
Selling a stock at 34 cents when the stock will be worth 65 cents is not necessarily a fail if it gets there via 29/30 cents. But it is not for the faint of heart.
Nonetheless, I am not explaining my own actions but just noodling around numbers so that folks can see where I get a wide range of target prices. The investors on this forum are clearly competent to put in their own numbers and derive their own target prices. You obviously have.
What I have done a little bit differently this time is ask the question.......what kind of fundamental numbers do we have to input to derive a share price of 30 cents? Then each investor can ask themselves if they expect better or worse numbers? and compare the actual results to the results implied by the market valuation.
The problem with comparing the results to the company's own targets (although useful) does not really help with judging the share price today, because it is quite obvious that the market has already built in a level of skepticism. It is fun but not particularly useful to know that if the company delivers $100m of ARR in 2021, that the share price will be a multiple higher than it is now. Even if it only delivers 90 m of ARR or $80 m or $70m of ARR it will be higher. But what level of ARR would cause the price to be above or below .30 cents? If you are buying at 30 cents, we can rejoice at a possible 5x upside but what we really want to know, is what is the upside with very conservative inputs?
That is all I was doing. I was not trying to be right or wrong. .
LVT Price at posting:
30.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
