% chance of Ironbark success?, page-15

The Northington report of 5% (quoted below) is a correct interpretation of SRK's valuation placed on Ironbark economic success:

Therefore, our valuation range does not capture the full range of possible future high and
low value scenarios for the Ironbark Prospect – it reflects our assessment of the market
value range today. While it is difficult to assess the full range of potential future value
outcomes for the Ironbark Prospect, we note that SRK assessed its “unrisked” discovered
value at between US$2,500 to US$7,500 million based on an assumed 2,500 mmBoe
discovery. However, it effectively assessed the chance of economic success to development
stage at approximately 5%. SRK therefore assumed a 95% chance of the field failing to
reach development stage (after incurring over US$90 million in development costs) relative
to a success case value of several billion dollars.
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Table 4-4 of SRK's report - Estimated value of discovered hydrocarbons, it states:

15Tcf BOE MM 2500 BOE value 2P US$1 (Low)

Technical success Iron bark (0.25) US$625 million risked

Wildcat typical Mungaroo economic success US$125 million

Economic success value is 20% of the 25% Technical success value, which equals 5%

.