lost the plot and bought at 2.25, page-10

Ah, DoubleBayKing, you are a true disciple of Bayes, Fisher, Black and Scholes. But many here speculate with the legitimate view that prior probability (estimated by intuition) informs the posterior probability.
The posterior probability of a random event or an uncertain proposition is the conditional probability that is assigned after the relevant evidence is taken into account.

wikipedia: "The posterior probability distribution of one random variable given the value of another can be calculated with Bayes' theorem by multiplying the prior probability distribution by the likelihood function, and then dividing by the normalizing constant, as follows:...."