My first thought is that it's almost certain that the directors will put in $4.8m (or there abouts, whatever is 100% for them) because without that then this is doomed to fail. It's a non-refundable contribution, however. You put the money in then there is no way to get it back out. So I don't expect the directors to make any promises at the GM unless they know the shortfall will be covered by whatever SI contacts they have cultivated.
Of course, they only way they would really be sure of that is if they came up about $5m short on the last Sept CR. But if they were just that short then, then why didn't they mortgage their houses when they had a chance?
So, really, I expect this to bomb. I don't think the directors will commit $4.8m of their own cash. But, who knows? Maybe they'll announce exactly that at the coming GM.
Anyways, we'll have about 60% dilution with this issue. Probably another 25% dilution if this makes it to get the next batch of working capital. So I'll need this to hit about $1 at some point after all this to make any money. That would make it a $5.5b company. So we'll need at least $55m in earnings to get a valuation like that.
Ann: Financing Update $10.8m Entitlement Issue and $5m Placement, page-114
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