My apologies for the brusque tone of my response, if that was the way it was perceived by you.
No I’m not in the least concerned about what posters say. Its water off this duck’s back.
But back to your question of, "Do you think the world is doing enough to avert a 1m sea level rise at the end of this century as predicted by a vast majority of climate scientists?"
Which is why I think it is a waste of time arguing about the sea level will do over the next 50, 60 or 80 years.My thoughts are the opposite of yours regarding speculation about the future, because if we don’t have the debate and consensus and act now, we risk leaving ourselves open to a climate tipping point.
If that happens then nothing we do will stop the process of triggering more positive feedback loops and within a couple of centuries the planet could easily have a rise of sea level of at least 10 metres.
This may seem like a huge alarmist con but seas were that high in the past when the temperatures were around the same as today. Scientists have suggestedt here is a catch up period when ice melts and eventually the appropriate sea level change occurs.
Consider the following salient points:
1. In 2000, the aggregate level of global carbon emissions was around 26 billion tonnes pa, split roughly half between developed countries and underdeveloped/developing countries, at circa 12 to 13 billion tonnes pa for each group. Fast forward to 2018, and total global annual carbon emissions are 38 billion tonnes. Since 2010, emissions from developing countries have fallen by 10%, to around 11 billion tonnes pa. For the group of developing countries, emissions have doubled(!) over that 18-year period, to 27 billion tonnes pa.
2. Over that short period of less than two decades, China has increased its emissions by an amount that is equivalent of 18 (yes, eighteen!)times Australia's current emission levels of 415 mtpa. India's increased emissions - up 50% over the past 8 years - have added the equivalent of four Australia's in terms of CO2 emissions.
3. Seemingly-insignificant countries such as Indonesia,Vietnam, South Korea, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt,Malaysia, Thailand, Mexico, Pakistan, Algeria, and Philippines, have increased their emissions by, respectively, 263 mtpa, 216 mtpa, 212 mtpa, 190 mtpa, 183mtpa, 149 mtpa, 136 mtpa, 132 mtpa, 125 mtpa, 124 mtpa, 110 mtpa, 100 mtpa, 90 mtpa,8 0mtpa and 70 mpta. Collectively, that grouping of emerging emitters has added2.25 billion tonnes pa (equivalent to almost five-and-a-half Australia's) since2010 alone!
4. Emissions from International Aviation and Shipping -growing structurally at around 2%pa to 3%pa - currently represents almost 1.3bntpa of CO2 (equivalent to emissions of more than three entire Australia's).
5. Even lowly, impoverished Bangladesh is adding meaningfully to the global emissions count, having increased its emissions by 60% in just the past 8 years and now being the 45th largest global emitter, bigger even than many first world countries such as Greece, Austria, Singapore, Ireland,Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark.
6. And then there is the next generation of fast-growing emitters which are currently still operating on low bases, but which will become noticeable emitters within the next decade: countries such as Nigeria,Angola, Myanmar, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Ghana, Guatamala, Cameroon, Tanzania,Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Cambodia, Senegal, DRC, Zambia, Uganda,Laos, Guinea.
I could go on, but the picture should be quite clear to any rational human being who has the ability to view matters clinically and objectively, based on the cold hard facts (as opposed to ideological hysteria):
The unfavourable trend of the past decade or two is only going to continue for the next decade or two, and in fact, it is going to increase in speed before the growth rate slows.
And the reason it is going to continue at an increased rate is that we've got a large emissions number (that of the developing world, which is now two-and-a-half times that of the developed world) getting exponentially larger (it is exponential because of the combined effects of rising population as well as rising per capita emissions),while the smaller emissions number (that of the developed world) is becoming only linearly smaller (linearly because while per capita emissions are falling in the developed world, its population base is static).
Because in an algebraic expression containing a large exponential function and a small linear function, the overall expression behaves very much like the exponential function.
And no amount of protesting and demanding and stomping of feet and wailing and gnashing of teeth or people gluing oneself to roads and bridges will alter that.
So if increasing carbon emissions is what causes you anxiety today, I'm afraid you need to brace yourself... because it is only going to get worse before it gets better.
And no government action, nor the frantic bashing out 50, or even 100, posts per day in fights with strangers online, will alter things.Your startling statistics should have world leaders agitating for action as your statistics suggest –we seem unable to slow down our emissions indicating we are heading for a greater than 1m rise in sea levels..
