Grinch spoils the party, page-23

Good pick-up KKLL. In the numbers below I rectified the relevant numbers. I also noticed that my division to derive EPS assumed 250m shares, rather than 230m. It makes sense to derive a full 12 months for BGC, because the EPS is intended to be project into the future via the PER of 15. The changes are in blue font.

Using 14m for Finance costs may well be a poor guesstimate, because I made no attempt to look at the facts in respect to debt. It is possible that the BGC NPAT already includes sufficient interest built into it, and some other basis of estimation used that is lower than $14m.

........................................................................ FY19 .. FY20 Est
REVENUE ............................................. 1,078,124 .. 1,550,000
Other income (RCR gain on acquisition) ..... 5,120
Finance income …........................................... 739 ............ 700 roughly similar
Finance costs …........................................... -7,236 ..... -14,000 nearly doubled
Share of profit / (loss) from associates ........ -2,084 ........ -2,000 roughly similar
Materials & consumables used ................ -237,099 .... -340,873 prorated to Revenue
Employee benefits expense ...................... -295,353 .... -424,624 prorated to Revenue
Subcontractor costs .................................. -246,304 .... -354,107 prorated to Revenue
Depreciation amortisation expenses .......... -62,053 ...... -89,213 prorated to Revenue
Plant and equipment costs ....................... -145,651 .... -209,400 prorated to Revenue
Impairment of financial assets Gascoyne .. -33,522
Other expenses ............................................ -8,944 ...... -12,859 prorated to Revenue

Profit before income tax ............................. 45,737 ..... 103,624
Income tax (expense) / benefit .................. -13,467 ...... -31,087
Profit for the year ........................................ 32,270 ...... 72,537
Add BGC NPAT FY20 est ............................................. 34,800 $29m prorated 12:10
Normalised Total NPAT FY20 est ................................ 107,337

EPS using share count 430 million ............................... $0.250 divide NPAT by 430m shares

Target Price using PER 15 .............................................. $3.74