For what it's worth, here's my take –all highly subjective and only my personal view, no advice:
CAP currently has a MC of $7.7M. Cash was $2.5M as at last Quarterly, with an expected expenditure of$720k in this quarter, so I'll call that $1.8M in the kitty at the end of this quarter.
That gives us an EV of $5.9. To me that's cheap for 69.8% of Hawsons, and I've put my money where my mouth is and topped up a little today. I guess it goes back to the old truism: It's worth either a whole lot more or nothing at all.At the moment it's dead in the water as there is no clear path forward to secure funding for the BFS, let alone a timeline, but this could change quickly. And once there's a credible pathway to fund bringing it into production, I'd expect it to fly. Personally, I'm happy to sit on my shares for a few years if I need to, but of course that raises the issue of opportunity cost - each to their own.
On top of these points, here are a few negatives and positives that strike me - in no particular order:
Negatives:
Capex of USD 1.4 Billion to bring Hawsons to production is steep for a minnow
Only 34% of shares held by top 20, only 2 substantial holders – lack of cornerstone / institutional investors
- I would guess that at the current rate of spending, they will need to raise capital again in the next half year - not a tempting prospect at current share price
- Chart looks so ugly not even its mother could love it
Positives:
- Tiny market cap for a project like this, massive upside if it's a go
- Outstanding high-grade deposit
- Product should be in high demand once mine is in production
20 year mine life
Good location not too far from infrastructure, which is a biggie for an iron ore deposit
Great team
- Manageable number of shares on issue
Time will tell. All IMO, DYOR.
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