When Alliance was announced they had a team, they launched the hub right before the International (largest DOTA2 tournament) the team left after the international and they had to rebuild a team. When they announced Alliance in May 2019 I am sure it wasn't planned to have the team leave.
Yes a dozen partnerships but most haven't launched and launching soon at present the only large ones launched is Alliance (already discussed and they haven't really started marketing as yet) and Critical X only launched last week which is a bit too early to determine how it goes and unlikely to have any significant impact on revenue for this quarter - however thy have 5M gamers on their books and charging 99 INR (~$1.50 USD) which Mogul will get 80% of the revenue and 20% of their advertising.
These guys run 200+ tournaments a month.
Converting 5% of their player base onto the membership would be over 3.1M USD to Mogul which on today's exchange rate would be over 4.5M AUD - If current expenses didn't change it would make Mogul profitable by 500k, agree not huge but this is 1 deal.
You have Team Secret, Sarena, Tier One, One Esports, Razer, Alliance, Australian Esports League, SG Esports, Ubisoft, Hasbro and numerous other partners which will all adding to the revenue stream. To me ESH is actually less risky than 12 months ago or even 3-6 months ago.
It is hard to see whats ahead when looking at the past.
Put whatever number you want of a conversion rate on fans, yes it could technically be zero or it could be 100% (or more as not everyone will follow the streamer/team) however I doubt it will be zero as fans will subscribe to a twitch streamer for emjois and other small stuff where as this gives them a chance to win a prize which could be a raffle draw, coaching, being able to play with the team/streamer whilst they stream, meet up which are all low costs/no cost and then there is prizes etc. This to me gives a higher level of engagement to a streamer/team compared to subscribing to someone on twitch.
I also highly doubt it will ever be 100% of a fan base and i wouldn't want to look at anything above 10% as i feel this will be a challenge to get to but Alliance was over 12% of their largest social media account (FB) so Alliance things it is doable but I'd rather play conservatively.
If you saw my spreadsheet you would either laugh because you think it is all BS or buy - however i am not sharing it because it is my research and DD and I have spent hundreds of hours researching and networking to make an educated guess/decision. I haven't done the research on EN1 as there is only so much time in a day but ESH is to me a buy if you just research and work out your own variables on conversion with what the revenue share is and fan bases you will be surprised.
I am sure management has a more comprehensive spreadsheet on what each partner is likely targeting and the potential revenue on what has been announced and still to be announced. However we can only work with what has been announced and put your on numbers through it.
ESH Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)