Really great to see some numbers attached to reasoned arguments! Spark is the 39th biggest telco in the OECD (out of...?) So I think it would be bigger than your average telco who is likely to sign up. So your revenue estimation might be a little high. But I don't see much wrong with your penetration guesses. 5% seems reasonable. There are lots of other similar apps and many telcos are building their own voicemail solutions so I think Norwoods target is probably the mid to smaller end.
What we don't know is the costs involved. Norwood have estimated $75k against providing software and services this Q but we don't know the revenue. Or what scaling there is for larger revenues. $6m to earn $37.5m seems low but without having any idea of profit margins a guess of $6m is as good as a guess of $18m.
If Norwood look like making a profit of $20m then a reasonable market cap would be thirty times that, say $600m or about 2.5c per share.
I think that's highly highly unlikely in the next 12-18m. Generating a $20m profit is really hard given where Norwood is now.
NOR Price at posting:
0.4¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
