Both NVX and TLG have deep pocket backers and smart people with the capacity to supply anode material in volume. I wouldn’t suggest either is ahead or in front at this stage but clearly the Samsung agreement is better than any current TLG agreement imo. This initial agreement tonnage and timeline may suggest the stage 1 TLG targets could be a bit large. However products and customers will vary.
NVX can supply both graphite and synthetic. They have some interesting analysis of both markets. The bulk of the analysis made available to the public (probably paid for by natural graphite developers) regarding future graphite (anode) supply has synthetic being thrown under the bus due to costs and competition with natural graphite. I would be a bit cautious banking on this conclusion completely. The performance, consistency, ability to adapt to new process and additive tech and lifecycle performance costs is not as clear imo. In addition some of the opex figures quoted for anodes are incomplete or not on a like for like basis or comparing different end use.
One element that may trip up synthetic graphite is when OEMs move to full supply chain analysis (maybe mid 2020s) and reporting of emissions, not just end product basis. However I’m not sure what the magnitude would be for natural vs synthetic and how big an issue this is.
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