If he gets to his $110M estimate, then the valuation figures would likely head north of 20c (low 20s).
What you do here is reduce the "at risk" (or discount) factor.
However, as for missing the target (if that were to eventuate), there would be no shortage of plausible explanations: 1) change in macroeconomic conditions and circumstances (ie: global or local volatility /slowdown); 2) increased voice competition (etc) in the local telecoms market; 3) ACCC slow to rein in Telsra (etc); 4) poor Government oversight in an election year; and 5) (the big one) differences due to completion of due diligence, or factors that were otherwise not in evidence when the due diligence was carried out (ie: blame it on the SWT component).
If the estimates miss, then provided that the miss is 15% or less, then the likely market ripples will be minimal.
Up to a 20-25% miss will cause a storm in the veritable teacup, but otherwise, it is likely to be business as usual.
Anything greater than 25%, however, will likely cause strife.
So, using $110M as the guide: 1) a mild miss to 15%, means downside risk to $93.5M; 2) a heavy miss to 20-25%, means downside risk to $82.5M-$88M; and 3) a battered miss greater than 25% takes it into the sub-$80M realm (in other words, closer to the mark, based on my earlier observations).
So, unless the revenue miss is >$20M (ie: $90M, or less) the impact and consequences are likely to be minimal.
As for the customer numbers, the first figure of 12,000 was included in the SWT ASX Release of 29 July 2003.
The 2nd figure of 16,000 was included in the MUL ASX release of 25 August 2003.
The 3rd figure of 10,000+ was included in the SWT ASX release of 12 March 2004.
