"By fitting a bell curve to historical phosphate production data"...
Yeah, just assume a normal distribution. LOL - thats horrible!!
"The high production peak of 220 million tonnes per annum in 2033 is therefore questionable."
Ofcourse it is questionable! What a silly model!! We are already at like 180mt, only 40mtpa from here in the next 25 years? We are likely to be at that level by 2012, let alone 2033.
"By allowing the phosphate reserve to be adjusted down from the USGS estimate, we can obtain a better fit to the historical data set, for both annual and cumulative production. Figure 2 shows the curves obtained by assuming an ultimate reserve of 9 billion tonnes"
OCP has 80bt of reserves at 30%p205 ALREADY. Why does USGS use such a low estimate of the "hard recoverable" phosphate?
Still a good article and makes a lot of good points. But why the unnecessary statistical nonesense??
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