CNP 0.00% 4.0¢ cnpr group

swap would you tell me please, page-18

  1. 1,190 Posts.
    Most of your questions seem to have already been answered I think.

    In less than 2 days we'll get FY reports which will contain an updated NTA and hopefullY all of the other financial results you will need. You'll also get a chance to sit into the webcast and hear GR & the crew talk through the numbers and get a grilling from analysts (assuming any bother to turn up). It's not clear whether we will get one webcast covering both stocks or two separate sessions.

    I think we can safely assume that the NTA is going to come out lower than it was at half year. What this will be is difficult to tell and I don't think anyone would want to take a stab. I would still anticipate it to be higher than the current SP.

    Investors tend to fall back to NTA when a company is distressed as a way of trying to work out a 'break up' value should things go to custard or some form of 'worth' on the company. When a company is healthy, NTA typically goes out the window in most cases (there are exceptions) and companies are valued on current and future earnings. If Centro does fail, NTA will be irrelevant as there is going to be very little if anything left for shareholders and you're going to have to wait 5 years to find out anyway. Your investment in CNP is really based (in my opinion) on a belief that the company will survive and that long term the returns from SP growth and earnings will be worth more than the price you paid.

    You'll need to be aware that the CNP numbers on Friday 'aint gonna be great. Centro is a distressed company with devaluing assets in the worst 6 months business environment for some time. CER numbers will probably be better - they paid a small dividend last half so we might reasonably expect this. Sentiment will drive the SP reaction on the day and this will be based in part on the 'headline' results and in part on the accompanying commentary (written and verbal) from the company.

    We're going to see property revaluations - in Aus these will be up, flat or down, in the US they will probably be down or flat - and various other 'downside' pressures on the numbers. I'd expect property revenue to be OK but we'll see some one-off costs associated with advisor fees and loan extensions.

    For some time now, both CNP and CER have been waaay out of favour. This has been driven by the mess that the company got itself into, coupled with the general business environment. Most investors don't want to go near a speculative stock, even if they have the cash to do. On top of this, numerous people have been burned by Centro which means they are either out completely or are reluctant to hold because of fear. The current market price is reflecting this.. and more.

    Finally, it's worth noting that the only output we have seen from the company this week was the announcement on Monday. Everything else you have read in the media, online, etc. is just an interpretation of this announcement and speculation thereon... nothing more.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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