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AverageJoe

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24/12/19

10:37

Post #: 42114985
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

View attachment 1902520

View attachment 1902520

XAUUSD has diverged from DXY in the current ST swing in the traditional popular narrative.

However DXY is so far a reflection other than non commodity currencies which are doing well I suspect from the resumption of a small trade deal. Here in Oz, the surprising employment change has most likely surprised to the upside.

Gold from a technical perspective is just waiting for leads from traders or trigger events to push through that falling trendline. In candlestick speak, last Friday green bar was the pole with price winding on a daily basis forming sideway small candles. The HL is indicating the momentum is on the upside but currently being trapped by the falling peaks of which the down trend channel is clear.

The 5Y TIIPS is still showing very tepid real inflation to date so this is perhaps the reason the equity markets in US is getting comforts from the Feds monetary stimulus of Repo rates control while here in Oz our equity markets are ST getting negative reactions from good economic numbers. The irony of risk markts generally speaking these days that does not bear resemblance to underlying economy growths!

I am listening to Kevin Muir interview over at MacroTourist channel and he did mentioned MMT even though I know very little of the theory behind this movement but his confirmation from what has happened over a decade of low growth is that he thinks monetary stimulus has been over used and there is reralisation that fiscal stimulus is the next tool.

If one is stuck in the mindset that sovereign debt issued in the sovereign currency = sovereign debt regardless where it was sourced or that the former sovereign currency debt isn't sustainable, US should have imploded long ago from GFC. It hasn't and neither has all the on going financial issues in the PIIGS economies in Europe. There is precedence in the form of an ongoing experiment, JAPAN. Their debt-gdp ratio is ridiculous and perhaps this is the reason there are trapped in the low growth low cash rate environment but the economy has not implded yet.

My reason on gold exposure is probably very different to the goldbugs reasoning correctly/wrongly on a bigger time scale with lots of pullback/rallies etc.

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Continuing from my post on Saturday, trendline break but I am more interested in the $1586 resistance from 12Dec high. I am also concern on AUDUSD as the commentary and economic numbers until that jobless was very bearish in general which is usually a turning point from the downside.

Why is equity (risk) correlating positively to gold? Just general Santa rally? This includes the bond yields bouncing off the low but the TIIPS are still showing not much real inflation.
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