alp to ban uranium mining in wa, page-22

Sorry but I fail to see what all the fuss here is about.

Carpenter has been crystal clear on the stance that he and his government have taken in regards to uranium mining right from the outset. He took it to the WA electorate as one of his mandates, and the majority of people of WA voted overwhelming in favour of that stance evidenced by two resounding election victories.

Compensation claims?? LOL. Uranium mining has never been allowed in this state, so on what basis will they lodge their claims? Only uranium EXPLORATION is allowed, and companies that choose to do so, do so in the hope that policies may be reversed in the future, with no guarantees that such will occur.

As for corporations and multi-nationals like Mega threatening to move operations and their budgets elsewhere, well I say let them...who cares. The world is hungry for FINITE natural resources...many countries are now nationalising commodities to ensure supply for their own domestic use, and that phenomenon will only become more prevalent as resources continue to become scarcer and more expensive to find. No place in the world is as resource rich as WA...so if they don't like the rules here, let them move elsewhere...but there will be no shortage of other suitors that will be willing to take their place to ensure their supplies. We are in the position to dictate...not to be dictated to.

As for uranium mining being some massive pot of gold, well Australian Uranium Association executive director Michael Angwin, who is obviously very pro-uranium, says that "...Uranium exports would add about $3.2 billion to WA's gross state product between now and 2030...".

That only $145 million per annum, and LESS than peanuts compared to WA's annual exports which come in at over $60 Billion...so that's approximately 0.25%...that's some pot of gold...LOL

I have posted the following a couple of time now, but once again, it seems appropriate to revisit it once more.


___________________________________________________________


It seems to be a common misconception that a uranium industry here in Australia will be some incredible cash cow. Reality suggests otherwise, as do the numbers. In comparitive terms, the value of uranium and it's exports is but miniscule relative to any of our major exports.

The Federal government's own research arm, ABARE, in it's recent commodities report, gives us a figure of approximately $700 million nationally as the export value attributable to uranium for 2007/2008, increasing to approximately $1.2B by 2012/2013......and those are national figures. Even if uranium production were to increase by 500% in the next 5-10 years, which is impossible, uranium exports NATIONALLY would come in at around $6B.....and that's in 5-10 years time.

In 2005-2006 alone, WA's exports alone totalled some $47 Billion.....and in 2006-2007, with commodity price increases it is expected to come in near $57-$60Billion

So....

Projected WA exports ALONE 2006-2007......$60BILLION

Projected uranium exports NATIONALLY 2007-2008......$700M


So, if those numbers alone aren't enough reason to dissuade those pushing for an uranium industry here in WA, let's now view it in another perspective. Australia's projected main exports by dollar value(billions) 2007-2008


zinc $5B
copper $6.7B
wine $3B
nickel $10B
lng $5.8B
wool $2.7B
beef, veal $4.5B
aluminium $6B
alumina $6B
wheat $3.8B
iron ore $20B
gold $11.1B
crude oil $8B
metallurgical coal $15b
titanium zircon $2.3B

uranium $700M


*Total exports expected to come in around $147.6B in 2007/8

*Total revenue from uranium in 2006/2007 - $726M, and, is expected to increase to $1.4B in 2012 due to expiry of long term U contracts and hence spot prices becoming applicable

So, even a 400% increase in Uranium production by 2012 (which is never going to happen) would see uranium's export value in Australia come in at around $5-6 billion.....hardly the wealth generated by, let's say, OPEC countries from oil exports.

An insignificant oil producer like Australia earns $8B in revenue from oil right now.....so how much do the OPEC nations earn I wonder??

Saudi Australia?? LOL...I don't think so.

Spot rises will most likely continue to climb for the next 5-10 perhaps, but what then? Uranium is not an uncommon element by any measure...years of under-investment in the industry has brought about current shortages and therefore higher spot prices, but there is a plethora of mining developments and exploration currently underway globally, which will bring in time, a long term average well below today's spot price, diminishing in dollar terms the value of any future uranium industry here significantly.

I am not against nuclear power.....I see it as the only realistic and viable remedy to our energy and environmental concerns for the forseeable future. I do however regard that as unfortunate...but be that as it may, we have left ourselves with little choice.

But to say though that an uranium industry would be a massive boost to our economy is a view that is simply not supported by the numbers.


NOTE : All figures extracted from

http://www.abareconomics.com/publications_html/ac/ac_07/ac_mar07.pdf

Uranium section pges 101-110

___________________________________________________________


SO, what has changed since that post a year or so ago.

Well, to begin with, the spot price for uranium has halved, whilst the spot price for other commodities such as coal and iron ore has more or less doubled, further suggesting that the notion that a uranium industry has massive financial benefits to our economy, and particularly so here in the West, is nonsensical.

We have far more mineral wealth here than we have the capacity to extract it....we are already busting at the seams....introducing further strains to an already constrained labour market will not be of any benefit to us here, and will only serve to further fuel inflationary pressures via increased wage demands and unavailability of accomodation for either rent or purchase. You need only ask any employer in WA how difficult it is to fill vacant positions here, or any would-be tenant to find accomodation.

So, I see no harm in leaving it exactly where it is for now...perhaps in the future it may well become something of far more value to us.